Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production

Crude oil is extracted from the Monterey Shale formation near Bakersfield California
Crude oil is extracted from the Monterey Shale formation near Bakersfield CaliforniaAlamy
Author

15 November, 2017

"Using a scenario whereby current levels of Opec [Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] production are maintained, the oil market faces a hard challenge in 1Q18 with supply expected to exceed demand by 0.6m bpd followed by another, smaller, surplus of 0.2m bpd in 2Q18".

"I think this group of committed and responsible producers came together. and I think they will continue to do what it takes to take us to the next level", he said at an worldwide oil conference.

In what could come as grim news for officials attending global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, the IEA expects oil demand to keep rising until 2040.

Over the next 25 years, the world's growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Next year, demand is seen hitting 98.9 million bpd, up 1.3 million bpd from this year.

The Paris-based IEA revised demand growth down by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2017 and 2018, for an increase of around 1.5m bpd this year, to 97.7m bpd, and 1.3m next, to 98.9m bpd, which could push the market back into a surplus in the first half of next year.

The US government said on Monday US shale production in December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd.

After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.

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The price of oil has risen more than 30% since June to a two-year high of around $57 a barrel in NY trading amid evidence of stronger economic growth around the world. This latest move comes as investors expect figures to show United States oil production has risen.

The IEA estimates that there will be 50 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from closer to 2 million now.

According to the IEA, China overtakes the USA as the largest oil consumer around 2030, and its net imports reach 13 million barrels per day in 2040.

"None of its core scenarios for the future of energy provide a reasonable chance that the world will avoid climate catastrophe", said Adam Scott, senior advisor at Oil Change International.

It argues that fuel efficiency and rising electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to 2 billion vehicles by 2040. Scientists just this week said that emissions of the heat-trapping gas rose this year after three years of not growing.

Between 2017 and 2040 the IEA estimates that more solar power capacity will be added globally each year than any other source of energy, with an annual average increase of almost 70 gigawatts.


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