Brexit could cause north's economy to shrink by 12%

Marc Chandler Says BOE Is Comfortable on Hold
Marc Chandler Says BOE Is Comfortable on Hold
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08 February, 2018

The research suggests that the option of staying in the single market and customs union, which has been rejected by ministers, would be the least damaging but would still see growth across different parts of the country between 1% and 3% lower than current forecasts.

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has warned the British Government that Ireland fully expects them to stand by the Brexit deal made in December regarding the issue of the Irish border.

In north-east England growth would be 3% lower if the United Kingdom stayed in the single market, 11% under a trade deal and 16% with no trade deal compared with staying in the EU.

Sky News can reveal the latest figures contained in the EU Exit Analysis - Cross Whitehall Briefing, which was controversially leaked last week.

By comparison, London would sustain just a 3.5% hit to growth in a no deal scenario.

The north will face an economic hit of 12% if no deal is agreed with the EU.

MPs have now been able to to view the documents in the House of Commons library.

The 8% figures for "no deal" was said to amount to Scotland's economy being £12.7bn a year worse off.

Agriculture could be hit by extra costs of between eight and 17%, although that could be mitigated by changing regulations and free-trade deals with new markets.

Tánaiste calls on Britain to drop tough talk on Brexit
Brexit could cause north's economy to shrink by 12%

According to Sky News, the report contains a region-by-region breakdown of potential GDP losses under three scenarios: staying in the single market, leaving with a free-trade deal, and a no-deal Brexit.

Meanwhile, a key meeting of the government's Brexit "war cabinet" yesterday was expected to focus on Northern Ireland and immigration.

London, where 60% of the population voted to remain, will be the least affected by leaving the European Union whatever deal is eventually reached, the report said.

"People did not vote to make themselves poorer and should have the right to reject a bad deal on Brexit".

"The UK government signed up to them and so did the European Union", the Irish Times reports. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.

Labour MP Chris Leslie said: "Devastating impact on incomes, jobs and ultimately for the revenues we need for NHS & public services - hitting Midlands, north and Northern Ireland especially hard".

A no-deal Brexit scenario would result in Scotland suffering a 9% hit to its GDP, according to the UK Government's own leaked analysis.

However, if there is a no-deal Brexit, the UK Government's assessment of a 9% drop in GDP is even more severe than the Scottish Government's analysis, released last month, of 8.5%.

Asked during Prime Minister's Questions if she would see off any "threats" from the EU, Ms May said: "We will be robust in our arguments". They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit'.

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