28 August, 2018
If trilateral talks collapse, Canada would suffer a GDP loss of US$37 billion, compared with US$40 billion in the U.S, and US$22 billion in Mexico, according to the report. Trump tweeted Monday morning. The hope is to have a deal for Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to sign before he leaves office, and the more left-leaning Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes over as president.
The breakthrough increases pressure on Canada, which has been on the sidelines, to rejoin negotiations with the US and Mexico. "A big day for our country".
The BIS predicts that revoking NAFTA would also cause wages to fall in all Canadian provinces and Mexican states, and in all but one of the 435 congressional districts in the U.S. "Most importantly it's an incredible for the works and the citizens of both countries". He declined to identify the issue.
Automobile rules of origin was one of several contentious issues on the table, of which several remain unresolved - including a handful of bilateral issues between Canada and the United States, notably around dairy access.
U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lightizer said the deal will likely be sent to Congress on Friday and signed in November.
While a US proposal to increase tariffs on cars imported from Mexico that don't meet new NAFTA content rules has always been a sticking point, that issue appears to have been resolved.
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Canada will be joining the talks after the U.S. and Mexico come to an agreement to replace NAFTA, which was signed in 1994.
Mr. Trump said new tariffs could hit cars from Canada if that country doesn't join the accord or strike a separate agreement with the U.S. "Will tax cars if we can't make a deal!" he wrote on Twitter earlier in August. In terms of intellectual property, the agreement extends the same copyright protection that USA creators have at home into the Mexican market.
The U.S. president also threatened America's northern neighbor with penalties if there is no agreement.
That could potentially expose them to U.S auto tariffs of between 20 per cent and 25 per cent, which Trump is considering under national security grounds. The US trade representative's office officially described the agreement as "a preliminary agreement in principle.to update the 24-year-old NAFTA with modern provisions representing a 21st century". The Mexican president said he wanted the former. But as the Oval Office pushback showed, there are more reasons than usual to be skeptical of Trump's sales pitch on the new free trade agreement.
That would be essential, as the sunset clause was a major sticking point - erupting, for instance, at the Group of Seven summit in June. A breakthrough between the USA and Canada on wages would be a big development, but Canada would still have to agree on that and all other issues. Canada has not been involved this latest round of negotiations. Trump and his Mexican counterpart were not talking face-to-face as might be expected for a momentous trade announcement, but rather by speakerphone, which led to a briefly comical moment when Trump couldn't get him on the line at first. Even once Canada agrees, any NAFTA deal between the three countries would have to be ratified.