16 November, 2018
Most analysts expect US output to climb above 12 million bpd within the first half of 2019.
Brent for January settlement fell 24 cents to $66.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Oil clung to its rebound as tension over USA sanctions against Saudi Arabia overshadowed a jump in American crude stockpiles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday avoided giving a direct answer on whether production should be limited, but said he had discussed the situation in global oil markets with U.S. President Donald Trump.
As a result, oil inventories are rising.
"Maybe some of the fears of extra supplies and reduced demand have finally been priced into the market, but I wouldn't say that a bottom has set in yet". In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to grow by 1.29 mb/d y-o-y, about 70 tb/d lower than last month's projection, with total world consumption to reach 100.08 mb/d.
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been watching the jump in supply and price slump with concern.
"It is becoming clearer that as we move closer towards 2019, the market will see a sizeable surplus at least over the first half of 2019", ING said.
At the same time, supply has been surging amid a massive increase in U.S crude oil production. The producer group said growth in supplies from non-OPEC countries would outpace growth in demand, "leading to widening excess supply in the market".
Now, though, the rising supplies are threatening to turn into a glut, triggering a 25 percent sell-off in spot crude contracts LCOc1 CLc1 since early October as financial traders pulled money out of oil markets. One aspect that might be in play is the amount of Non-Opec oil production with U.S. shale production increasing to record levels for next year.
Consequently, this has dampened the outlook in the medium term for oil prices.
Earlier in the month the EIA reported that US production reached a record 11.6 million bpd and should hit 12.0 million bpd in early 2019. Those lower prices likely quieted Trump, but production cuts could again boost prices at the pump.
On Tuesday, U.S. futures marked their steepest one-day loss in more than three years due to ongoing worries about weakening global demand and oversupply.