Exit polls boost markets; all eyes on final outcome

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Prem Kumar Dhumal. Credit PTI
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Prem Kumar Dhumal. Credit PTI
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16 December, 2017

The keenly-contested elections in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is likely to have an impact on the central government's economic agenda as well as on Lok Sabha polls in 2019. The News X poll predicts BJP will get 110-120 and Congress 65-75, while 2-4 seats will go to others. The BJP leaders were right in claiming that the traders may have been unhappy with the party over the issue opf demonetisation, but they would not ditch the Prime Minister. The official results will be declared on Monday. But after the results were out, it was a different one contrary to the predictions of exit polls.

The Congress will also have reason for some cheer as it is expected to improve on its performance since the 2012 polls, but not one of the polls predicted that it would even come close to winning the election. Today's Chanakya projects 135 seats for the BJP and only 47 for Congress. In north Gujarat, the Congress leads on 18 of the 32 seats in the region and the BJP leads on only 14.

The exit polls also predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh.

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According to ABP-CSDS survey, in Saurashtra, the BJP will win 31-37 seats and the Congress may get 16-22 seats.

The forecast is that the BJP would win 99-146 seats in the 182-seat legislature, according to five surveys published after voting closed on Thursday. The saffron party is likely to get 21-27 seats with 52 per cent vote share. A total of 851 candidates were in the fray in the final phase. The 89 seats that went to polls were in the Saurasthra, Kutch and south Gujarat regions. As per data provided by Avian Media, BJP has sustained its domination on the digital sphere as well, topping the charts in the "Most Discussed Political Parties" list for both states. In Ahmedabad, which accounts for 21 of the 93 seats, the approximate voter turnout was 66%, significantly lower than at-least half a dozen districts, and over three percent lower than the overall polling. The combined figures stand at around 67.75 per cent - lower than the 72 per cent of the 2012 Assembly elections.


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