IEA: US to become 2nd biggest oil exporter by 2024

Crude Oil weekly chart
US oil settles 0.6% higher at $58.61 a barrel, hits 4-month high

18 March, 2019

The IEA's oil market forecast for the next five years says United States output will increase by four million barrels per day, and that growth will account for 70 percent of the world's total increased output.

Crude oil prices began Friday on a higher note, as prices try to reach a balance between low global demand and supply cuts.

On March 14, USA crude oil April futures rose 0.6% and settled at $58.61 per barrel, the highest closing level for U.S. crude oil active futures since November 12.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged up 29 cents to $58.55.

US crude ended the week 4.1 percent higher, and Brent was up 1.9 percent.

After the review meeting on March 17 and 18, ministers from OPEC+ alliance will meet in Vienna next month, and again in June, to decide on output policy for the second half of the year.

"If OPEC+ decide to extend (cuts). we expect that inventories will continue to draw through at least Q3", USA investment bank Jefferies said.

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"My expectation for OPEC this year is that they will continue with the production cut that they announced in December".

"Crude oil continues to grind response to ongoing production cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers as well as another (output) slump from a blacked-out Venezuela", said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank.

In the Middle East, the United States aims to cut Iran's crude exports by about 20 percent to below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from May by requiring importing countries to reduce purchases to avoid USA sanctions, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

IEA President Fatih Birol, whose remarks were included in the report, said that there might be extraordinary changes in the global oil industry in the future and that the US would continue to influence the global oil market over this five-year period. The reduction is created to cut any oil glut and prop up prices.

"Concerns that either the delay in the trade negotiations or signs of worries about slowing economic growth that will impact energy demands are limiting the market's upward movement". If the oil rig count fall continues further, it might drag USA crude oil production in the coming weeks.

US crude oil production also dropped, falling by 100,000 barrels per day, to 12 Mmbpd.

Goldman Sachs said growth in global demand for crude in January was "nearly 2.0 million barrels per day, with strength visible in both emerging markets and developed economies".

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